Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2233
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2233 · LAS → RNO
departs 6:30 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±3 pts
+19 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
6pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
RNO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.