Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 2246 · LAS → SDF
departs 12:25 PM PT · arrives 7:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 9%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 4%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.