WN 2268 · LAS → SAN

departs 3:29 PM PT · arrives 4:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
30%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.19 in

SAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2268 · LAS → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?