Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 22
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 22 · PHX → STL
departs 4:45 PM MT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.