Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2306 LANDED 5:29 PM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 2306 · LAS → SMF

took off 4:23 PM PT · landed 5:29 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

SMF (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2306 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time