Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 230 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 230 · SMF → PHX

departs 3:10 PM PT · arrives 4:42 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±2 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 230 · SMF → PHX

Odds over time