WN 2362 · OAK → LAX

departs 4:21 PM PT · arrives 5:46 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2362 · OAK → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?