Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2415 LANDED 8:28 PM ET, ON TIME · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 2415 · BWI → TPA

took off 6:35 PM ET · landed 8:28 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility8.5 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2415 · BWI → TPA

Odds over time