Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2421 LANDED 11:36 AM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 2421 · AUS → ONT

took off 10:56 AM CT · landed 11:36 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ ONT is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2421 · AUS → ONT

Odds over time