Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2451 · PHX → CMH
departs 6:00 PM MT · arrives 12:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.