Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2527 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 2527 · PHX → AUS

departs 2:28 PM MT · arrives 6:19 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at AUS that day

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2527 · PHX → AUS

Odds over time