Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 263 LANDED 6:22 PM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 263 · LAS → RNO

took off 5:27 PM PT · landed 6:22 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

RNO (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 263 · LAS → RNO

Odds over time