Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2651
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 2651 · AUS → BNA
departs 8:45 PM CT · arrives 10:55 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 25%
Sun 10/4 24%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.