Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2782 · TUS → PHX
departs 4:55 PM MT · arrives 5:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 22%
Sun 10/4 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.35 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.33 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.