Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2844 LANDED 12:16 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 2844 · MDW → TUL

took off 10:57 AM CT · landed 12:16 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 10am departures from MDW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2844 · MDW → TUL

Odds over time