Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2848 · ORF → BWI
departs 4:30 PM ET · arrives 5:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 16%
Thu 10/1 20%
Fri 10/2 23%
Mon 10/5 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.