Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2853 LANDED 4:36 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 2853 · MHT → BWI

took off 3:16 PM ET · landed 4:36 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 12% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MHT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.4 mi Precip0.10 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2853 · MHT → BWI

Odds over time