Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 2862 · PHX → ABQ
departs 7:55 PM MT · arrives 10:10 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 39%
Thu 10/1 38%
Fri 10/2 35%
Sat 10/3 34%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
ABQ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.34 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.70 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.