Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3218 LANDED 6:20 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3218 · PHX → MCO

took off 11:45 AM MT · landed 6:20 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3218 · PHX → MCO

Odds over time