WN 3230 · PHX → OAK

departs 9:41 PM MT · arrives 11:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3230 · PHX → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?