Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3282 LANDED 6:11 PM CT, ~1 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 3282 · PHX → STL

took off 1:51 PM MT · landed 6:11 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3282 · PHX → STL

Odds over time