Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 33
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 33 · SMF → SNA
departs 2:25 PM PT · arrives 3:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SMF are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.