Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3425 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 3425 · BWI → AUS

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3425 · BWI → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?