Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3454 LANDED 7:12 PM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 3454 · SAN → SFO

took off 6:06 PM PT · landed 7:12 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3454 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time