Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3476 LANDED 7:45 PM ET, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3476 · MCO → SRQ

took off 7:21 PM ET · landed 7:45 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SRQ (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3476 · MCO → SRQ

Odds over time