WN 3507 · SAT → PHX

departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 7:02 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SAT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3507 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?