Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3521 LANDED 5:32 PM ET, ~19 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 3521 · SRQ → MCO

took off 5:04 PM ET · landed 5:32 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3521 · SRQ → MCO

Odds over time