Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3543 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3543 · SEA → SMF

departs 4:15 PM PT · arrives 5:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.03 in

SMF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3543 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time