Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3585 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:12 PM PT, ETA 8:58 PM HT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3585 · SJC → HNL

took off 7:12 PM PT · expected to land 8:58 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↑ 7pm departures from SJC are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3585 · SJC → HNL

Odds over time