Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3629 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:20 PM MT, ETA 4:51 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3629 · PHX → MSY

took off 12:20 PM MT · expected to land 4:51 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.7 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

MSY (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3629 · PHX → MSY

Odds over time