Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3638 LANDED 5:27 PM PT, ~16 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 3638 · MCO → LAX

took off 3:37 PM ET · landed 5:27 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3638 · MCO → LAX

Odds over time