Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3700 LANDED 12:16 PM HT, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 3700 · SMF → KOA

took off 10:16 AM PT · landed 12:16 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ KOA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ SMF is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3700 · SMF → KOA

Odds over time