Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3791
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 3791 · LAS → SNA
departs 7:10 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+23 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↑
7pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.19 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.