Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3824 LANDED 7:33 PM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 3824 · OMA → HOU

took off 5:44 PM CT · landed 7:33 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OMA that day

↑ Arrivals into HOU at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ OMA usually runs smoothly

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OMA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.47 in

HOU (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3824 · OMA → HOU

Odds over time