Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3839 · BWI → GSP
departs 6:45 PM ET · arrives 8:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 24%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 9.2 mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.