Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3840 IN THE AIR (OFF 7:58 PM PT, ETA 10:15 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3840 · LAS → ELP

took off 7:58 PM PT · expected to land 10:15 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

ELP (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3840 · LAS → ELP

Odds over time