Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3850 IN THE AIR (OFF 9:14 PM CT, ETA 10:51 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3850 · STL → LAX

took off 9:14 PM CT · expected to land 10:51 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from STL are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3850 · STL → LAX

Odds over time