Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29
WN 3852 · TPA → DEN
departs 2:00 PM ET · arrives 3:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.