Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3853 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3853 · BWI → BUF

departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 5:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from BWI are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3853 · BWI → BUF

Odds over time