Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3854 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3854 · LAS → TUS

departs 3:17 PM PT · arrives 4:12 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±4 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TUS that day

↑ 3pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

TUS (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3854 · LAS → TUS

Odds over time