Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3872
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 3872 · SNA → SMF
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 21%
Thu 10/1 31%
Fri 10/2 33%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from SNA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.