Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3898
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 3898 · RNO → LAS
departs 7:45 PM PT · arrives 9:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±4 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.