Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3954 LANDED 7:03 PM MT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 3954 · PHX → ELP

took off 5:14 PM MT · landed 7:03 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, thunderstorms forecast at ELP that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 5pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

ELP (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3954 · PHX → ELP

Odds over time