Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3964 IN THE AIR (OFF 4:06 PM MT, ETA 4:32 PM PT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

WN 3964 · SLC → SAN

took off 4:06 PM MT · expected to land 4:32 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SLC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3964 · SLC → SAN

Odds over time