Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
WN 3981 · SEA → SAN
departs 3:05 PM PT · arrives 5:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.03 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.