Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4047
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4047 · RNO → LAS
departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 6:05 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 16%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+18 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.