Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4074 LANDED 9:57 PM ET, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4074 · STL → RSW

took off 6:54 PM CT · landed 9:57 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at RSW

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4074 · STL → RSW

Odds over time