Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4090 LANDED 6:35 PM ET, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

WN 4090 · BNA → TPA

took off 4:15 PM CT · landed 6:35 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 4pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4090 · BNA → TPA

Odds over time