Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4116
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday
WN 4116 · SMF → LAS
departs 5:45 PM PT · arrives 7:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 9/29
Today 25%
Thu 10/1 32%
Fri 10/2 32%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
+16 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.