Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4122 LANDED 3:52 PM MT, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

WN 4122 · BWI → DEN

took off 2:32 PM ET · landed 3:52 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9.2 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4122 · BWI → DEN

Odds over time